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  • The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

  • Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Over the past 30 years, this has been mightily reinforced by the transformation of China’s economy and the impact of technology.

  • The epicentre of risk in the financial system has moved. In 2008, it was leverage in the banks. Today, the equivalent risk is in the asset management industry, where a series of interlocking factors have come together to make markets increasingly ‘avalanche prone’. There is an illusion of stability. Low volatility has lulled many to sleep. We believe this will end badly—and are positioning portfolios to protect our clients from the avalanche.

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